Monday Market Report: Nashville Real Estate October 26, 2026

Good morning, and welcome back to the Monday Market Report on Nashville real estate. Every Monday I pull the latest Middle Tennessee numbers and break them down county by county, so you can see what's happening where you actually live instead of reading a national headline and guessing.

Two things changed this week. Mortgage rates came down a bit, and we got the national September numbers for context. The local county data is still September, since October closings won't be reported until early November. Here's where things stand.

Mortgage Rates: A Small Step Down

Per Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week of October 22, 2026:

• 30-year fixed: 7.32%, down from 7.40% the week before, and up from 6.19% a year ago
• 15-year fixed: 6.68%, down from 6.71% the week before, and up from 5.44% a year ago

That eight-basis-point drop isn't going to change anyone's life, but it's the right direction. On a $400,000 loan it's roughly $22 a month. These are national averages for borrowers with strong credit and 20% down, so your own quote may land above or below them.

Nashville Real Estate by the Numbers: September 2026

The county figures below come from Realtracs MLS data as published in Grant Hammond's Middle Tennessee market update for September 2026 (report date October 4, 2026). The page labels these figures preliminary and expects closings and listing counts to revise upward as late paperwork lands, so treat them as a solid picture rather than a final tally.

Across the ten-county Realtracs region, September 2026 compared with September 2025:

• Closings: 3,073, down 4% from 3,205
• Median sale price: $444,169, up 2% from $437,000
• Average sale price: $631,993, up 5% from $601,444
• Average days on market: 38, up from 33
• Months of supply: 5.41, up from 4.87
• Average active inventory: 14,249 homes, up 8% from 13,141
• New listings: 5,441, down 19% from 6,687

That new-listings number is the one I keep coming back to. Inventory is up year over year, but fewer sellers are coming to market than last fall. Some owners are sitting tight on a low rate instead of trading it for a 7% one, and that's holding supply in check even as homes take longer to sell.

Middle Tennessee County Comparison Table

Source: Realtracs MLS via Grant Hammond, September 2026, preliminary. The report publishes year-over-year changes for the region only, not per county, so I'm not showing county YoY figures I can't source.

County-by-County Breakdown

Davidson County

853 closings, a $450,000 median, 39 days on market and 6.46 months of supply, the highest supply figure in the table. Inside Nashville proper, neighborhoods like Donelson and Madison are where I'm seeing buyers find the most room to negotiate right now.

Williamson County

397 closings at a $950,000 median, 41 days on market and 5.33 months of supply. Franklin and Brentwood anchor the high end of the region, and at this supply level buyers who were shut out in the spring are getting second looks at homes that didn't sell.

Rutherford County

404 closings, a $422,940 median, 35 days on market and 4.91 months of supply. Murfreesboro keeps Rutherford near the top in volume, and with a median under the regional average it stays one of the more approachable corners of the market.

Sumner County

349 closings, a $446,000 median, 34 days on market and 4.32 months of supply. I spent years on the Sumner Realtors board, so I watch this one closely. Hendersonville and Gallatin are still moving faster than the region as a whole.

Wilson County

307 closings, a $499,900 median, 34 days on market and 4.22 months of supply, the tightest supply in the table. Mt. Juliet and Lebanon continue to draw steady demand, and sellers there have a bit more leverage than most of their neighbors.

Maury County

184 closings, a $422,998 median, 38 days on market and 5.45 months of supply. Spring Hill and Columbia have plenty of new construction, so compare builder incentives against resale homes before you decide.

Robertson County

107 closings, a $375,000 median and 25 days on market, the quickest pace in the table, with 4.58 months of supply. Springfield offers some of the more affordable prices within commuting range of Nashville, and homes there aren't sitting long.

Cheatham County

57 closings, a $415,000 median, 52 days on market (the longest here) and 5.22 months of supply. Ashland City and the river country nearby make up a small market where a sharp list price matters from day one.

Dickson County

72 closings, the lowest median in the table at $345,500, 47 days on market and 5.81 months of supply. The town of Dickson remains one of the best values I can point to across these nine counties.

How Middle Tennessee Compares Nationally

For context, the National Association of REALTORS® reported on October 13, 2026 that September existing-home sales rose 1.5% from August to a 3.99 million annual rate, down 2.2% from a year earlier. The national median price was $417,500, up 1.3% year over year, with 4.8 months of supply and a median 33 days on market. In the South, sales rose 2.8% from August but slipped 0.5% year over year, with a $361,000 median.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun tied the softness to rates: "Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home." Our region's median sits above the national one, our supply is a little higher at 5.41 months, and homes here are taking a few days longer than the national median to sell.

What It Means for Buyers

• Negotiating room is real. With supply above five months regionally and days on market up five days from last year, asking for repairs, closing-cost help or a rate buydown is normal right now.
• Rates moved your way, slightly. If you were pre-approved a few weeks ago, it's worth a fresh look at your numbers.
• Shop the slower counties. Davidson, Dickson and Cheatham show the most supply or the longest days on market in the table.
• Be ready in the fast ones. Robertson at 25 days and Wilson and Sumner at 34 don't leave much time to think it over.

What It Means for Sellers

• Fewer new listings is your advantage. New listings are down 19% year over year, so well-prepared homes have less competition than the inventory headline suggests.
• Price to today. Prices are up about 2% year over year, not 10%. Buyers are comparing everything, and overpriced listings are the ones adding days.
• Help with the rate. A seller-paid buydown often widens your buyer pool more than the same money taken off the price.
• Holiday timing. Showings thin out around Thanksgiving and Christmas, but the buyers still out there are serious ones.

Frequently Asked Questions About Nashville Real Estate

What is the median home price in the Nashville area right now?

The ten-county region's median sale price was $444,169 in September 2026, up 2% from $437,000 a year earlier, according to preliminary Realtracs data. Davidson County's median was $450,000 and Williamson County's was $950,000.

Is this a buyer's market or a seller's market?

It's close to balanced, and it varies by county. The region had 5.41 months of supply in September 2026, up from 4.87 a year earlier. Davidson County leans toward buyers at 6.46 months, while Wilson (4.22) and Sumner (4.32) still tilt toward sellers.

What are mortgage rates this week?

Freddie Mac's national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.32% for the week of October 22, 2026, down from 7.40% the prior week. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.68%. Your own rate depends on credit, down payment and loan type.

Why is this report using September data in late October?

Closed-sales data is compiled after the month ends, so October figures won't be available until early November. The September numbers are also labeled preliminary and will be revised slightly upward as late closings are recorded.

Which Middle Tennessee county is the most affordable?

Of the nine counties in this report, Dickson had the lowest September 2026 median sale price at $345,500, followed by Robertson at $375,000 and Cheatham at $415,000.

Let's Talk About Your Next Move

Numbers only take you so far. What matters is your timeline, your budget and the specific street you're looking at, and that's a conversation, not a spreadsheet. Whether you're buying your first home, moving up or getting ready to list, I'm glad to walk you through what these trends mean for you.

Call or text me at 615-981-6272, email JasonLee@simplihom.com, or browse homes across Middle Tennessee at TourNashvilleHomes.com.

See you next Monday,
Jason Lee, REALTOR®, simpliHOM